Donald Trump warned that the US‘may have to fight’ to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon – even though his own intelligence agencies remain undecided on the regime’s capabilities and intent.
For decades – long before becoming Israel’s prime minister – Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted that Iran is only one to two years, if not months, away from having a bomb.
This is a rhetoric now being touted by the US president, who stressed that Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuke.
Yet, the assessment from international intelligence agencies is that this is not Iran’s intent, even though it has enough uranium to build one.
Senior US intelligence officials have also insisted that Iranian leaders were likely to shift toward making a nuclear weapon – only – if the US targets its uranium enrichment site Fordo or if Israel assassinated its supreme leader.
Four people familiar with US assessments told CNN that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.
They said that it is up to three years away from being able to produce a nuke ready to deliver on a target of its choosing.
Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the US-based Arms Control Association, told the BBC today that Netanyahu ‘did not present any clear or compelling evidence that Iran was on the brink of weaponizing’.
‘Iran has been at a near-zero breakout for months,’ she said, referring to the time it would take Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one bomb if it chose to do so.
‘Similarly, the assessment that Iran could develop a crude nuclear weapon within a few months is not new.’
Trump insisted on Wednesday that he does not want to involve the US in the war between Iran and Israel, but that he may have to.

The president signaled that the US may not be able to have it both ways, telling reporters in the Oval Office: ‘I’m not looking to fight.
‘But if it’s a choice between fighting and them having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do. And maybe we don’t have to fight.’
The US has begun evacuating nonessential diplomats and their families from its embassy in Israel.
As of the afternoon, Trump had not made a decision on whether to strike Iran’s nuclear sites and join Israel in bombing to prevent it from building nukes.
‘I have ideas as to what to do,’ Trump said.

‘I like to make a final decision one second before.’
Iran’s supreme leader has warned the US that joining Israeli strikes will ‘result in irreparable damage for them.’
Ayatollah Khamenei hit out at the ‘threatening and ridiculous statements’ made by Donald Trump, who demanded his country’s ‘unconditional surrender’ as US warships and fighter jets readied to join Israel’s attacks.
The Israeli military on Wednesday stated that it ‘completed a series of strikes’ on more than 20 military targets in Tehran that were tied to the ‘regime’s nuclear weapons development project’. The sites held facilities for producing weapons and research and development.